China June trade data buoyed by robust demand

BEIJING — China’s overseas shipments rose from a year earlier as global demand held up and trade tensions with the US were kept in check amid ongoing talks. At home, resilient demand led to a rise in imports.

Key Points

Exports rose 11.3% in June in dollar terms, the customs administration said Thursday, more than the estimate of 8.9% in a Bloomberg survey

Imports increased 17.2% in dollar terms, leaving a trade surplus of $42.8 billion

Demand for Chinese products has proven resilient this year as global demand holds up. Tensions with the country’s largest trading partner also appear to be easing after 100-day trade talks due to end on July 16 have signalled some progress toward addressing the deficit run by the US, which last year reached $347 billion.

At the same time, the stronger-than-expected import reading bodes well for second-quarter gross domestic product growth, due for release Monday, as it may signal that domestic demand hasn’t succumbed to greater curbs this year on lending or the property market.

Economist takeaways

“Today’s upbeat figures point to still-strong foreign demand for Chinese goods, as well as fairly resilient domestic demand,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “We are skeptical that the current pace of imports can be sustained for much longer given the increasing headwinds to China’s economy from policy tightening.”

“We still expect export growth to slow in the second half 2017 on stronger renminbi so far this year, and uncertainties in external demand,” Zhao Yang, Nomura Holdings Inc’s chief China economist, wrote in a note. “The cooling property market leads to slower domestic investment growth, which may weigh on import growth as well.”

“The better-than-expected export growth indicates a resilient trade outlook,” said Betty Wang, senior China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd in Hong Kong.

“The strength of Chinese exports is a positive sign for global demand,” said Rob Subbaraman, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore, adding that shipments are largely comprised of finished goods that show genuine end-demand. “Imports point to strong Chinese demand, raising the chance that second-quarter growth is stable to higher than the first.”

The Details

• In the first half, exports in yuan terms rose 15% compared with the same period a year earlier, to 7.21 trillion yuan

• First-half imports rose 25.7% to 5.93 trillion yuan, customs administration data released earlier showed

• January to June iron imports rose 9.3% year-on-year; crude imports rose 13.8% for the same period.

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG/BANGKOK POST JULY 14, 2017

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About thomasdinnocenzi

Thomas D’Innocenzi is a highly accomplished, results-focused international consultant with extensive experience in global sourcing and business development worldwide to meet evolving business needs. Tom has proven ability in implementing and managing profitable global marketing and sourcing operations. He has extensive experience in international business development to accommodate rapid growth. Skilled in building top-performing teams, bench-marking performance, and developing organizations to improve efficiency, productivity, and profitability. Experienced transition leader and change agent. Tom founded Nova Advisors with the mission of providing expert Global Business Development consulting services for companies seeking to expand their market share as an independent consultant. Tom has a network of experts and advisors throughout the Asia-Pacific region and North America. His expertise includes business development, global sourcing, manufacturing, commodities, logistics, QA/QC, FDA, regulatory compliance, sustainability, and supply chain optimization. Tom is experienced in the medical device, apparel, consumer goods and technology services verticals helping companies advance their global sourcing capabilities and develop new markets through a local and sustained approach. Located in SE Asia and the United States, Tom expands market reach to drive sales. His global sourcing strategy includes directly negotiating with commodity suppliers, supply chain networks and distributors for optimal terms based on his expertise and first-hand knowledge of the players. Contact Tom to use his consulting service to increase your global market and make global sourcing profitable for you in the Asia Pacific Region and the United States. http://www.NovaAdvisors.com thomas@NovaAdvisors.com USA Direct: +1.904.479.3600 SINGAPORE: +65.6818.6396 THAILAND: +662.207.9269
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